Energy research firm Noreva warns that natural gas prices could triple at some US hubs, a scenario the AI data center buildout is not priced for. Demand from hyperscalers is colliding with slowing supply growth and rising LNG exports.
Noreva’s forecast puts prices above $10 per million BTUs at certain hubs, up from today’s range of roughly $2 to $4.50. Gardett says futures markets are not pricing in the squeeze.
The exposure is concentrated: Meta’s 7.5-gigawatt Louisiana plant for its Hyperion campus, gigawatt-scale Texas plants from Microsoft and Google announced in April, and Amazon’s 7.6-gigawatt Texas project.
Fuel makes up about half of a large plant’s electricity cost, so a doubling or tripling would inflate power bills for bring-your-own-power data centers. Token prices could climb, or hyperscalers could fall back on the grid and push electricity rates up for everyone.
Asked whether the hyperscalers are wrong, Gardett said the bet is defensible on today’s futures curve, then added that he would not stake his own view on it holding.
